Plants without prospects for resumption in the near future or which have not disclosed additional safety costs are excluded. Plants operating over 40 years as of February 2021 are not included in the calculations. Note: While individual power plants are listed, the figures are only rough estimates based on the calculation method used by the government’s Power Generation Cost Analysis Working Group. Even with optimistic assumptions, average generating costs are high at nearly every plant. Data on individual plants is not available, so average generating costs at existing nuclear plants for their remaining operating periods should be understood as rough approximations only they may not be entirely accurate. My estimates make the following optimistic assumptions: the costs considered for each power plant are the cost of additional safety measures, and for maintenance costs, fuel costs, and others, I use the assumptions of the government’s 2015 Power Generation Cost Analysis Working Group initial investment (construction costs) is set at zero for total electricity generation, the actual operating period is used for power plants that have resumed operations from fiscal 2022 onward, it is assumed that all reactors will resume operations, including those currently offline, and that thereafter capacity utilization will be maintained at 70% and accident costs use the 21.5 trillion yen figure indicated by the Committee for Reforming TEPCO and Overcoming 1F Challenges in 2016. I have therefore made some very simple cost estimates for existing nuclear power plants that have begun investing in safety measures since 2011 to resume operations. A document used by the Strategy Policy Committee of the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, held in advance of the country’s new Strategic Energy Plan, actually states that nuclear power has inexpensive operating costs. One reason the government gives for ‘maximum utilization’ is the notion that nuclear power is inexpensive. The government plans to continue to make safety enhancements and maximize utilization while decreasing overall dependence, but this policy is completely at odds with current reality. The Green Growth Strategy towards 2050 Carbon Neutrality, announced in December 2020, lays out the government’s vision for the future of nuclear power. Japan’s energy policy, however, seems to be in denial. The operating period for nuclear reactors under the Reactor Regulation Act is limited to 40 years or 60 years even when extended to the maximum amount allowed, so the fate of nuclear power is to disappear. Nuclear power has declined greatly and is now barely hanging on. Considering the situation for all of Japan, it is clear that nuclear power has already stopped functioning as the country’s base load power source. As a result, nuclear power’s share of Japan’s electricity generation has plummeted to around 6%.Įlectricity generated by nuclear power in fiscal 2019 was nearly the same as levels seen in the 1970’s. Twenty-four reactors are scheduled to be decommissioned, and of all the country’s nuclear power plants, only nine, owned by Kansai Electric, Kyushu Electric, and Shikoku Electric, have resumed operations. The situation changed completely though after the accident. Taking a look at nuclear power, in fiscal 2010, before the Fukushima disaster, 54 reactors were in operation and were responsible for 25% of Japan’s total electricity generation. Having said this though, with regard to energy use, a major conversion is taking place that would have been inconceivable before the disaster. Disaster recovery has not been adequate, and many challenges remain, including disposing of ALPS-treated water and contaminated topsoil that has been removed, and the handling of the accident at the power plant. The problems caused by the disaster, however, are nowhere close to being resolved. In Japanese 11 March 2021 will mark ten years since the nuclear accident at Tokyo Electric’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.
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